World Agriculture Production Estimates For November, Gujarat Makes India Proud With High Peanut Yields

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By Prabodh Krishna

With an increase of production in coarse grains and a very marginal shrink in wheat supplies for this month, United States Department of Agriculture had released its world production estimates for November. Gujarat with a potentially high yield of groundnuts has made India proud for oil production estimation by USDA

United States Department of Agriculture had released its estimates for world agriculture production for November, where Gujarat’s increase in the yield of peanut production has made a shining entry in world oil seed production estimates for the marketing year 2017-18.

Wheat Supplies:

The global wheat supplies for the year 2017-18 are down fractionally with decreased beginning stocks but increased production. Global production has risen to 0.8 million tons led by a one million ton increase for Russia and a 0.5-million-ton increase for the EU on updated harvest results. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton decrease for Pakistan. Exports are raised 0.6 million tons with the United States and Russia up 0.7 million, and 0.5 million, respectively. Australia exports are lowered by some 0.5 million. Global use is raised fractionally this month. With supplies decreasing and total use increasing, ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons.

Coarse Grains:

Global coarse grain production for the year 2017-18 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1,322.6 million. The year 2017-18 foreign coarse grain outlook from USDA is for lower production, reduced consumption, and smaller stocks, relative to last month. Foreign corn production has been forecasted lower mostly reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Russia, and Vietnam that are only partially offset by an increase for the European Union. The projected corn yields for Russia and Ukraine are reduced based on reported harvest results to date. Sorghum production in Mexico is lowered based on area indications from the government and lower forecast yields as a result of the prevalence of the sugarcane aphid.

Corn exports are lowered to Ukraine but raised for the United States.  Imports are raised for Mexico and Canada, but lowered for South Korea. China’s barley imports are raised reflecting expectations of continued demand for imported feedstuffs.  Foreign corn ending stocks are down from last month, mostly reflecting declines for China, Vietnam, Canada and Ukraine that more than offset increases for the EU and Argentina.  Global corn stocks, at 203.9 million tons, are up 2.9 million from last month.

Rice Estimates:

Global rice supplies for the year 2017-18 has been decreased to 619.3 million tons, primarily on a smaller crop projected for India.  World 2017-18 consumption is down fractionally to 480.4 million tons.  Global 2017-18 trade is raised to 44.9 million tons on higher exports by Thailand, Vietnam, Burma, and China more than offsetting reductions for India, Pakistan, and the United States.  Trade is still below the 2016-17 record of 45.3 million tons.  World ending stocks are lowered this month to 138.9 million tons for 2017-18, still higher than last year and at the highest level since 2000-01.

Oilseeds Estimate:

The foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts for the year 2017-18 include higher production, exports, and stocks compared to last month.  Foreign production as per USDA has been forecasted at 446.7 million tons, which is up by two million with higher soybean, peanut, cottonseed, and rapeseed partly offset by lower sunflower seed.  Soybean production for Brazil is increased one million tons to 108 million on higher reported area for Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.  Peanut production is increased for India on higher yields for the state of Gujarat.  Sunflower seed production is lower for Ukraine, Argentina, and South Africa.  Major foreign soybean trade changes for 2017-18 include higher exports for Brazil and Paraguay, with increased soybean imports for China.  Foreign soybean ending stocks for 2017-18 are up from last month, mostly reflecting increases for China, Argentina, and Brazil.

Source: BW Businessworld

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